January Meeting Notes – 2016 Forecasts

An enthusiastic group met to discuss the forecasting project established in the most recent posting – a forecasting project shared by Columbus Futurists members covering specific questions for the upcoming year.

We decided to add a couple of pertinent issues to the list: gas prices, and oil prices.

Anyone can play – jump in at any time – send your forecasts for the issue on which you want to be on record.  You can modify your forecast at any time.  The current slate of participants and their forecasts are attached to this post.

The full list of issues we will follow through 2016 is here:

Politics

  • Who will win the Ohio Dem primary – March 15, 2016
  • Who will win the Ohio Rep primary – March 15, 2016
  •  Rep Nomination – ending July 21, 2016, Cleveland OH
  •  Dem nomination – ending July 28, Philadelphia, PA

Economy

  • Price of oil, per barrel
  • Price of gasoline, per gallon (according to AAA, http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/todays-gas-prices/)
  • What will the unemployment rate be on December 1, 2015?
    • For the state of Ohio- 12/1/2016
    • For the US – 12/1/2016
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average be on December 1, 2016

Geopolitics

  • What is the likelihood of a major US ground troop deployment (5000 or more) Global Climate
  • What is the likelihood of a 50% or higher remission in drought in the American West, focus on California?

Spreadsheet download of participating forecasters.  Join us!

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